The annual inflation rate rose to 15.88% in September of this year, from 15.32% in August, as the prices of food goods increased by 19.12%, those of non-food goods were higher by 16.61%, and services were more expensive by 8%, according to data published on Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
Consumer prices in September 2022, compared to the previous month, increased by 1.3%, and the inflation rate since the beginning of the year (September 2022 compared to December 2021) is 13.1%.
The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (October 2021 – September 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (October 2020 – September 2021) is 11.8%.
According to INS data, the harmonized index of consumer prices (IACP) – indicator for determining inflation at the level of EU member states – in September 2022 compared to August 2022 is 100.93%.
“The annual inflation rate in September 2022 compared to September 2021 calculated on the basis of the harmonized index of consumer prices (IAPC) is 13.4%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (October 2021 – September 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (October 2020 – September 2021) determined on the basis of the IAPC is 10.2%”, the INS press release states.
The annual inflation rate will probably continue to increase towards the end of the current year, under the impact of shocks on the supply side, but at a noticeably slower pace, argued the representatives of the National Bank of Romania, in a statement sent on October 5, 2022.
“According to current assessments, the annual inflation rate will probably continue to increase towards the end of the current year, under the impact of shocks on the supply side, but at a noticeably slower pace. Determinants for the further worsening of the near-term inflation outlook are the higher dynamics anticipated to be recorded in the coming months by the prices of natural gas and electricity – including in the conditions of the change in the characteristics of the electricity price capping scheme – as well as food prices, under the influence the large increase in the quotations of agri-food goods, against the background of the war in Ukraine and the imposed sanctions, but also of the prolonged and extended drought at the European level this summer. The impact of these factors will only be partially counterbalanced by basic disinflationary effects expected to manifest themselves in the near future, including in the fuel segment”, it was stated in the central bank’s press release sent after the monetary policy meeting of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) .
In August, the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isărescu, announced that the inflation forecast for the end of this year is estimated at 13.9%, and for the end of 2023 at 7.5%. In May 2022, the BNR estimated inflation of 12.5% for the end of this year and 6.7% for 2023.
The International Monetary Fund revised significantly upward the estimates regarding the advance of consumer prices in Romania both for this year, from 9.3% to 13.3%, and especially for next year, from 4% to 11%, shows the latest “World Economic Outlook” report, published on Tuesday by the international financial institution.