Bucharest, November 12, 2025 – RBJ – In September 2025, the annual inflation rate edged up to 9.88 percent, from 9.85 percent in August, given that the new increases in the dynamics of fuel and energy prices, as well as of the non-food sub-components of core inflation were almost entirely offset by the opposite evolution in VFE and tobacco product segments.
In 2025 Q3 overall, the annual inflation rate thus rose to 9.88 percent, from 5.66 percent in June, amid the expiry of the electricity price capping scheme on 1 July and the hikes in the VAT rates and excise duties starting 1 August. The transitory direct effects of the two successive supply-side inflationary shocks affected primarily the aggregate dynamics of exogenous CPI components, owing largely to the hefty rise in electricity prices and the more modest advance in fuel prices, the impact of which was mitigated to a small extent by the significant deceleration of VFE price growth, on the back of the decline in prices of fruit and vegetables.
In turn, the annual adjusted CORE2 inflation rate posted a faster increase in 2025 Q3, climbing to 8.1 percent in September, from 5.6 percent in June. This reflects an almost full pass-through of VAT rate hikes to consumer prices, also amid the resilience of demand in certain segments and high short-term inflation expectations. Additional moderate influences came from the still fast dynamics of wage costs and indirect effects of the rises in electricity and fuel prices, as well as from higher prices of some agri-food commodities and the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate.
In October 2025, the annual inflation rate fell slightly to 9.76 percent, given that the decreases in the dynamics of fuel and VFE prices were only partly counterbalanced, in terms of impact, by the further swifter increase in energy prices, as a result of the hike in natural gas prices, while the annual adjusted CORE2 inflation rate remained unchanged at 8.1 percent.
The annual inflation rate calculated based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP – inflation indicator for EU Member States) rose to 8.4 percent in October 2025, from 5.8 percent in June 2025. The average annual CPI inflation rate went up to 6.6 percent in October, from 5.1 percent in June, while the average annual HICP inflation rate climbed to 6.2 percent in October, from 5.3 percent in June.
The new statistical data reconfirm that economic activity advanced by 1.2 percent in 2025 Q2, after stagnating in the previous quarter, which implies that the aggregate demand deficit widened more modestly in 2025 H1 compared to expectations.
In addition, data reconfirm that the annual GDP growth halted its decrease and remained at 0.3 percent in 2025 Q2, amid the opposite developments across the two main components of aggregate demand. Thus, domestic demand reported a steeper loss of momentum in this period, due largely to the slight contraction in gross fixed capital formation as compared to the similar year-earlier period and the sharp decrease in the positive contribution of change in inventories, whose influences were only partly offset by the increase in household consumption, following the mild decline seen in 2025 Q1.
By contrast, net exports diminished considerably their contractionary impact in 2025 Q2, following the emerging divergence between the further step-up in the annual dynamics of exports of goods and services and the notable decrease in those of imports, in terms of volume. Against this background, trade deficit narrowed visibly from the same year-ago period, while the current account deficit also posted a decline, albeit more modest, on the back of the worsening of the primary income balance.
The latest data and analyses point to a near-stagnation of economic activity for 2025 H2 overall, associated, however, with an increase in annual GDP growth in Q3, amid mixed developments across the aggregate demand components and major sectors as compared to the same year-earlier period.
Specifically, in July-September 2025, retail sales witnessed a small contraction in annual terms, while industrial output continued to decrease slightly in July-August as compared to the similar year-ago period. Conversely, the annual dynamics of the volume of construction works surged in July-August overall, on account of a recovery visible in all segments, particularly in residential construction works. Moreover, the positive differential between the annual change in exports of goods and services and that in imports thereof widened in July-August, as the former posted a relatively more modest decline against the previous quarter. As a result, the trade deficit and the current account deficit recorded steeper annual declines in July-August 2025.
Based on the currently available data and assessments, as well as in light of the elevated uncertainty, the NBR Board decided in the meeting held today, 12 November 2025, to keep the monetary policy rate at 6.50 percent per annum. Moreover, it decided to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 7.50 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent per annum. Furthermore, the NBR Board decided to maintain the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.
