By Constantin Radut
Coincidence or not, Bloomberg and Reuters published almost simultaneously articles predicting “disaster” in Eastern European economies. Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary, the most important economies in the region, are considered.
“The economies of Eastern Europe are already showing signs of weakness against the background of the war and its effects, after an unexpected growth at the beginning of the year. According to economists, Romania and Poland are among the only countries that have maintained their growth,” writes Bloomberg.
“Hungary is in the worst situation facing the impossibility of avoiding a quarterly decline. In order to win the April elections, Viktor Orban implemented a series of populist measures, which in the long term will affect the country’s economy. The Czech Republic, which released gross domestic product data at the end of July, also unexpectedly avoided a quarterly contraction. The GDP of the Czech Republic increased by 3.6% compared to last year and by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter”.
In turn, Reuters sees a disaster on the currency market in the region.
“Signs of slowing economic growth affected the evolution of currencies and shares in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) on Wednesday”, says the Agency first
Then it shows: “In Hungary, the forint fell for the third session in a row and depreciated by 0.9% against the euro, while the Polish zloty fell by 0.7%, being on the chart for the weakest session in the last three weeks”.
“In Romania, the leu depreciated slightly, after Tuesday marked the weakest session in the last three and a half years”.
If in Hungary things are close to what Reuters writes, in Romania the national currency strengthened strongly in the last week. Thus, on August 10, the Leu?Euro exchange rate was 4.9132. On August 17, the rate was 4.8849. This means appreciation and not depreciation.
Regarding economic growth, things do not seem catastrophic for now. Romania’s economy grew by 5.8%, in the first semester of this year, compared to the similar period in 2021, both on the gross series and on the seasonally adjusted series, and in the second quarter it recorded an appreciation of 2.1% reported in the previous quarter, according to the signal estimate published on Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
For its part, Eurostat announces that the Gross Domestic Product of the European Union and the Eurozone registered an increase of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the previous three months, and the Netherlands and Romania had the most significant advance , shows the preliminary data published on Wednesday by the European Statistical Office (Eurostat).
Among the EU member states for which data are available, the most significant advance of the economy in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the previous three months, was recorded in the Netherlands (2.6%), Romania (2.1%) , Sweden (1.4%), Spain, Hungary and Bulgaria (all with 1.1%). Decreases were recorded in Poland (minus 2.3%), Latvia (minus 1.4%), Lithuania (minus 0.4%) and Portugal (minus 0.2%).
A look at the entire table published by Eurostat shows that the economies of Eastern Europe maintain a GDP well above the EU average, while the Western states are in sharp decline, both Q2/Q1 2022 and Q2 2022/Q2 2021.
Is it about manipulation? Did Comrade Soros also intervene in this area of dry figures?
By Constantin Radut