Bucharest, July 9, 2023 – Natural gas production is estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6%, in the period 2023-2026, after a decrease of 1.1% (to 7.343 million toe) in 2022, according to estimates of National Strategy and Forecast Commission (CNSP).
In the last Forecast of the energy balance, CNSP predicts 2023 an increase in gas production by 5.6% (to 7.755 million tons of oil equivalent), 2024 by 2.3% (to 7.935 million toes), 2025 by 2, 7% (to 8.15 million toe) and for 2026 by 3.8% (to 8.455 million toes).
As far as natural gas imports are concerned, a sharp decrease of 23.1% is forecast for 2023, a trend that will be maintained until 2026, with an average annual rate of 2.2%. Thus, for this year imports are estimated at 1.845 million tep, for 2024 at 1.79 million tep (minus 2.8%), for 2025 at 1.755 million tep (minus 2.1%) and for 2026 at 1.725 million tep ( minus 1.8%). Last year, natural gas imports fell by 16.5%, reaching around 2.4 million tep, while exports stood at 470,000 tep.
CNSP also estimates an increase in domestic consumption of 1.9% in 2023, followed by an increase in the period 2024-2026 with an average annual rate of 2.8%, more accentuated in the second part of the forecast interval.
“According to the statistical data, the domestic consumption of natural gas in 2021 was achieved based on the increase in consumption at the population level (+17.9%, with a contribution of 5.3 percentage points) and to a lesser extent by industry (+3.1 %, contribution of one percentage point), while inputs into transformation and consumption in the other branches had a negative contribution, accumulated by 0.4 percentage points. However, these increases were annihilated by the restriction of domestic consumption at the level of 2022. For the forecast period 2025-2026, the most important contribution will come from transformation inputs, as the replacement of coal-based electricity production with that based on natural gas was assumed. According to the calculation methodology underlying the forecast, the production of power from natural gas-fired power plants will continue to be used as a balancing valve for the entire set of electricity resources. (…) Currently, there are production capacities for natural gas-fired electricity that can be put into operation in the short or medium term, such as the Iernut thermal power plant, the forecast scenario taking into account the access to the investment starting from 2025”, states CNSP.
