Bucharest, October 15, 2024 – RBJ – Romania could enter the top 10 economies in the European Union (EU), and in the next ten years the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could reach 700 billion euros, thirty times more than in 1994, according to forecasts published on Tuesday by ING Bank Romania, reports Agerpres.
The report entitled “30 x 30. 30 years of transformations. 30 years of ING” reveals the fact that, in the next decade, Romania’s average economic growth rate will be between 3% and 3.5% per year, as well as a similar average inflation. The specialists specify that one of the conditions for these estimates to be fulfilled is the efficient absorption and use, in the coming years, of the 28 billion euros available through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR)
“Romania’s economy has gone through a period of deep transformations in the last 30 years, and the GDP has increased from approximately 26.6 billion euros in 1994 to almost 357 billion euros in 2024. The structural changes of the economy, the investments foreigners and the accession to the European Union have led to an accelerated economic growth in the last three decades. At the rate of real GDP growth of 3-3.5% in the next ten years, our estimates show that Romania’s GDP could double and reach 700 billion euros, which would mean that Romania is among the top ten strongest economies in the European Union”, said Valentin Tătaru, chief economist at ING Bank Romania, in the quoted press release.
The specialized analysis shows that, in the last 30 years, the economic growth of Romania managed to lead to notable performances by comparison with those of other European states. For example, if in 1994 Romania’s GDP was more than three times lower than Portugal’s, in 2024 Romania’s economy will exceed Portugal’s GDP by approximately 30%.
At the same time, the transition to the market economy, in the period 1990-2000, the period of economic boom between 2000 and 2008 (when Romania’s GDP registered an average annual growth of 6.1%), the financial crisis and the subsequent economic recovery (2009- 2014), the post-crisis expansion (2014-2020) and the post-pandemic recovery (2021-2024) were the main stages of the development of the Romanian economy in the last three decades.
“In the last 30 years, the average net salary has increased from the equivalent of 72 euros in 1994 to more than 1,000 euros in 2024. The number of employees in Romania has decreased by more than 20% in the last three decades as a result of the restructuring carried out by the large state companies and the external migration of over 3.6 million Romanians. The lowest number of employees in the economy was recorded in 2011, when the effects of the 2008-2009 financial crisis were fully felt on the labor market, and Romania reached 4.3 million employees. This year, the number of employees reached a maximum of the last 25 years, with 5.16 million employees in the middle of 2024”, the report states.
According to the cited source, in the health sector, public expenditures increased at a faster pace. Thus, if in 1994 public spending on health was around 2% of GDP (compared to the European average of 6%), in recent years it has increased to around 5%. “Therefore, in the last three decades life expectancy has increased from 69 years (in 1994) to 76 years (in 2024), but it is still below the EU average (of over 80 years),” the document notes .
Regarding the housing space, in Romania the number of dwellings increased by 25% in the last 30 years, and at the end of 2023 over 9.7 million dwellings were recorded.
“In addition to the number of dwellings, their size has also increased. From an average area of 34 square meters/housing in 1994, it has reached almost 48.8 square meters in 2023, i.e. 43% more than in 1994. In Bucharest, the average time to purchase a 55 square meter home is approx. 8.5 years, and in Cluj Napoca for 12 years, compared to more than 18 years in Prague or 16 years in Budapest”, underlines the analysis of ING Bank Romania.
ING Bank Romania is part of the ING Group, a global international financial institution, which offers banking services to over 38 million individual clients, companies or institutions in over 40 countries.
Founded in 1994, ING Bank Romania is currently a universal bank, offering services and products for over 1.8 million customers in three business segments: individuals (retail), SMEs & Mid-Corporate companies and Wholesale Banking.
