The war in Ukraine has severely disrupted the Black Sea grain market: Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and Algeria will be the hardest hit

By rbj
Early estimates after the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine show that 13.2 million tonnes of wheat, corn, and barley from Ukraine and Russia will no longer reach the market. The amount will only be partially offset by the deliveries of other world powers, according to tomisnews.ro.
The deficit will be partially offset by deliveries from Australia, which will export 1 million tonnes more than originally estimated. Australia has improved production but also better prices than other major manufacturers. There will also be more Indian wheat on the market, with the USDA estimating an additional 3 million tonnes, up to 10 million tonnes, due to growing stocks.
The price of wheat in India is also competitive. At the same time, an increase in exports is expected from Brazil with 200,000 tons. “The Black Sea conflict has disrupted the flow of grain in the region and caused great energy losses and uncertainty in the world grain trade. Ukraine has suspended port operations for trade since February 24. The circulation of Russian grain through the Black Sea is also affected by the exceptionally high level of ship insurance premiums. In addition, the sanctions that have been imposed make the business a challenge. In response, grain prices have skyrocketed for all major exporters, ”the USDA’s first forecast after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reads.
Wheat, corn, and barley are the main grains supplied by Ukraine and Russia. In the case of wheat, in the marketing year 2021/2022 which began in July, Ukraine represents 10% of world exports and Russia 16%. The blockade in Ukraine means for the global market a minus of 6 million tons of corn and minus 200,000 tons of barley. The hardest hit by the Black Sea conflict will be Turkey (importing 500,000 tonnes less), Israel (minus 300,000 tonnes), Egypt (importing 600,000 tonnes lower) and Algeria (minus 500,000 tonnes).