Bucharest, February 14, 2024 – # RBJ – The annual inflation rate rose in January 2024 to 7.41%, from 6.61% in December, as food commodities rose in price by 5.64%, the non-food ones by 7.36%, and the services by 10.91%, according to the data of the National Institute of Statistics (INS), transmitted on Wednesday.
“The consumer price index in January 2024 compared to December 2023 was 101.10%. The annual inflation rate in January 2024 compared to January 2023 was 7.4%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (February 2023 – January 2024) compared to the previous 12 months (February 2022 – January 2023) was 9.8%“, says the INS in a press release.
The National Bank of Romania announced at the beginning of the year that the annual inflation rate will increase in the first month of the current year and will then resume its gradual decrease, on a trajectory lower than that highlighted in the medium-term forecast from November 2023.
“According to current assessments, the annual inflation rate will increase in the first month of the current year and will then resume its gradual decrease, on a trajectory lower than the one highlighted in the medium-term forecast from November 2023. The increase will be driven by the increase and the introduction in January of some taxes and indirect taxes in order to continue the budgetary consolidation, while the subsequent decrease in the inflation rate will, in the future, have as major sources factors on the supply side – primarily disinflationary basic effects and downward corrections of the quotations of materials agri-food premiums and crude oil prices – as well as the decreasing dynamics of import prices”, according to the BNR press release on the January 12 monetary policy decision.
Also, the updated forecast of the National Bank of Romania reconfirms the prospect of an increase in the annual rate of inflation at the beginning of the current year, under the impact of the increase and introduction of indirect taxes and fees, and of the resumption of its decrease afterwards, but at a slower pace compared to 2023 and with the previous projection.
“In today’s meeting (Tuesday, February 13 – n.r.), the Board of Directors of the NBR analyzed and approved the Inflation Report, February 2024 edition, a document incorporating the latest available data and information. The updated forecast reconfirms the prospect of an increase in the annual rate of inflation at the beginning of the current year – under the impact of the increase and introduction of indirect taxes and fees – and the resumption of its decrease afterwards, but at a slower pace compared to 2023 and the previous projection.
Thus, after it probably rises in January to a noticeable level lower than previously forecast, the annual inflation rate is expected to decline to near the forecast value in December 2024 and reach the upper end of the target range at the end of next year.The decline will be further driven by supply-side factors, mainly basic disinflationary effects and downward corrections of commodity prices, to which are added the influences expected to come from the deceleration of the increase in import prices and from the decrease of short-term inflationary expectations, as well as from the continuation of the restriction of the aggregate demand surplus, but much slower than in the previous projection”, says the BNR.
