Eurostat today released estimates of GDP growth for both the previous quarter and the same quarter in 2021. The largest growth is in Portugal and Ireland. In most Central and Eastern European countries, growth is strong, with the exception of Slovakia and Bulgaria.
Romania’s Gross Domestic Product increased by 6.5% in the first quarter of the year, compared to the same period in 2021, both in the gross series and in the seasonally adjusted series, while compared to the previous quarter GDP rose in real terms by 5.2%, according to provisional data (1) published on Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
“The seasonally adjusted series of the quarterly Gross Domestic Product was recalculated as a result of the revision of the estimates for the first quarter of 2022, with no differences compared to the version published in Press Release No. 124 of May 17, 2022,” the INS states.
Gross Domestic Product – seasonally adjusted data – estimated for the first quarter of 2022 was 341.805 billion lei current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 5.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and increasing by 6.5% compared to the first quarter of 2021.
On the gross series, the estimated GDP for the first quarter of 2022 was 272.337 billion lei current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 6.5% compared to the first quarter of 2021.
The following branches in particular contributed to the growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021: wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, transport and storage, hotels and restaurants (2.6%), with a share of 20.5% in the formation of GDP and which registered an increase in the volume of activity by 12.2%; information and communications (1.8%), with a share of 7.4% in the formation of GDP and which registered an increase in the volume of activity by 23.3%; professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative service activities and support service activities (0.7%), with a share of 5.6% in the formation of GDP and which registered an increase in the volume of activity by 9.5%; entertainment, cultural and recreational activities; repairs of household products and other services (0.2%), with a share of 2.6% in the formation of GDP and which registered an increase in the volume of activity by 9.2%; net taxes on product (0.4%), with a share of 9.4% in GDP formation and which increased their volume by 4.0%.
A negative contribution to GDP growth was registered by industry (-0.1%), with a share of 25.8% in GDP formation, and which registered a decrease in activity volume by 0.3%.
At the same time, important positive contributions were made: the expenditure for the final consumption of households, whose volume increased by 7.0%, contributing by 4.4% to GDP growth; the expenditure for the individual final consumption of the public administration, whose volume increased by 7.5%, contributing by 0.6% to the GDP growth; the expenditure for the collective final consumption of the public administration, whose volume increased by 7.9%, contributing by 0.9% to the GDP growth.
“Seasonally adjusted series are recalculated quarterly in accordance with European practice,” the INS points out.
The Romanian economy is expected to grow by 2.9% this year, the World Bank said on June 7 in its Global Economic Prospects report.
The estimates are better than those advanced in April, in another report, when the international financial institution showed that Romania will record a modest advance of 1.9% this year.
Compared to the January edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, the WB estimates are significantly lower given that, at that time, the organization anticipated an advance of 4.3%.
For 2023, the World Bank forecasts a 3.7% expansion of Romania’s GDP, compared to a 3.8% advance forecast in January, and an increase of 3.9% for 2024.