Bucharest, May 16, 2025 – RBJ – In its meeting of 16 May 2025, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided the following:
>>> to keep the monetary policy rate at 6.50 percent per annum; >>>
to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 7.50 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent per annum; >>> to maintain the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.
The annual inflation rate went down to 4.86 percent in March 2025 from 5.02 percent in February, as a result of the drop in fuel and energy prices, the impact of which more than offset that of a faster hike in food prices.
In 2025 Q1 as a whole, the annual inflation rate declined less than anticipated, from 5.14 percent in December 2024, given that the decreases in the dynamics of fuel and tobacco product prices during this period, alongside those in the growth rates of non-food sub-components of core inflation, were partly counterbalanced, in terms of impact, by the swifter increase in energy prices, administered prices and processed food prices.
In turn, the annual adjusted CORE2 inflation rate resumed its decrease in 2025 Q1 at a slower-than-expected pace, dropping to 5.2 percent in March from 5.6 percent at end-2024.
The disinflationary base effects from non-food sub-components and the slowdown in import price dynamics had further a downward impact, while notable opposite influences came from the hike in some agri-food commodity prices, as well as from the gradual pass-through of higher wage costs to some consumer prices, also amid the high levels of short-term inflation expectations.
In April 2025, the annual inflation rate remained at 4.85 percent, given the divergent influences stemming, on the one hand, from the new declines in the dynamics of fuel and tobacco product prices, as well as of the non-food sub-components of core inflation and, on the other hand, from the further step-up in the growth rates of food prices and energy prices, inter alia on account of an unfavourable base effect.
The annual inflation rate calculated based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP – inflation indicator for EU Member States) went down to 4.9 percent in April 2025 from 5.5 percent in December 2024. The average annual CPI inflation rate dropped to 5.0 percent in April 2025 from 5.6 percent in December 2024. In turn, the average annual HICP inflation rate decreased to 5.3 percent in April 2025 from 5.8 percent in December 2024.
Preliminary data point to a standstill in economic activity in 2025 Q1 compared with the slight advance anticipated in February, as well as to a decline in annual GDP dynamics to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent in 2024 Q4, amid mixed developments across aggregate demand components and major sectors, as suggested by high-frequency indicators.
