European Union is slipping, with dramatic consequences for its democratic future

By Constantin Radut
For more than two years, the European Union has been unable to find a way to bring economic, integration and cohesion policies closer together. The difference of vision between the French President and the German Chancellor regarding the future of the EU, the enlargement of the community space by the accession of new states and, especially, the concept of “union” made the bloc of 28 to be reduced to 27 countries and German conservatism it came into conflict with the neoliberalism of the Paris leader. The European Union is now a “Piece” of the world increasingly insignificant.
The European Union finds no consensus on any pressing issue and, as a result, its economic decadence is increasingly evident.
This is amply evidenced by the health crisis caused by the SARS COV-2 virus which has amplified the political, economic and social weaknesses and precariousness of the European Union.
The three months of difficulties in managing the health crisis have further deepened the differences in tactics and strategies between the north and south of the EU, between the western and eastern states.
The fact that in recent summits the heads of state and government have failed to find a common denominator to any pressing issue facing the EU shows that the current relationship structure between member states is no longer compatible with reality.
Regarding the economic situation of the Union, Eurostat figures are very worrying.
Seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 3.8% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU during the first quarter of 2020, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These were the sharpest declines observed since time series started in 1995. In March 2020, the final month of the period covered, COVID-19 containment measures began to be widely introduced by Member States. In the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU.
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 3.3% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU in the first quarter of 2020, after +1.0% and +1.3% respectively in the previous quarter.
These were the sharpest declines since the third quarter of 2009 (-4.5% for euro area and -4.4% for EU).
In March 2020, the month when COVID-19 containment measures began to be widely introduced by Member States, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.4%, up from 7.3% in February 2020. The EU unemployment rate was 6.6% in March 2020, up from 6.5% in February 2020.
Eurostat estimates that 14.141 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.156 million in the euro area, were unemployed in March 2020. Compared with February 2020, the number of persons unemployed increased by 241 000 in the EU and by 197 000 in the euro area.
Last year, in the same estimate, Eurostat shows that the Gross Domestic Product of the euro area registered an increase of 0.4% in the first three months of 2019, after an advance of 0.2% in the last quarter of 2018.
The unemployment rate in the EU fell to 6.4% in March 2019, from a level of 6.5% in February 2019.
The coming months are decisive for the future of the EU. If the Germans fail to relax after Covid-9, then far-right circles will gain even more ground. If Paris fails to manage the health crisis, then President Macron signs his political death certificate. In both cases, the light at the end of the tunnel is quite invisible.